Will ICE’s be obsolete for Automobiles at some stage in the future?
The answer to this is a possible yes. Though in the near future the electrification of the whole global vehicle fleet will be a major undertaking. Plus the disposal and recycling of the zero-value (worthless) IC Engines will have to be planned with State intervention for materials reclamation.
Th graph above shows one simulation where half of vehicle sales are Electric. Is it possible for this to be doubled and with another half coming from retrofitting?
Not good enough for impacting climate change and reducing global warming totally – but a big win that combined with a shift to renewables and reduction of fossil fuel power generation will show huge impacts. That said any increase in electric vehicle populations will be a welcome shift.
The goal being an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions – to potentially be achievable in high population density zones, cities, through a shift to electric cars charged by renewable energy.
ICEs will be banned from some specific Zones on the planet
Such as Urban Centres all over and in all parts of certain developed countries (Norway).
Old/existing IC Engine vehicles will be required to be retrofitted
To comply with new regulations.
IC Engines will persist
In other Zones (remote, rural or off the grid) – Especially in locations with energy (electricity) security (scarcity) issues such as off the grid locations, Pacific Island States, parts of Asia, South America and Africa.
When will European Countries be fully electric?
When regulations prohibit them. New vehicles have to be Electric: Norway by 2050, France by 2040.
By 2030 what percentage of cars will be electric?
Hard to answer. Even if all new car sales will be Electric – there are older cars (1.2 Billion today) – and the new electric cars will at best be the added fraction to reach 2 billion by 2030. So if new ICE automobiles are banned everywhere on the planet – then 800 million (0.8 billion) new cars will be electric.
Who will buy so many cars?
See Automobile consumption figures.
Global Vehicle Consumption
69 Million (2016) (2017-2030, 800-900 million new vehicles)
- Europe 17
- America 11.5 Million
- Asia 39.5 Million
- Africa 1 Million
If there is a BAN on IC Engines, how many vehicle will need to be retrofitted?
Vehicle population 1.2 Billion cars run on IC Engines today.
- America: 238 (US: 122)
- Europe: 333
- Africa: 30
- Asia: 344
- China: 135
- Japan: 60
- India: 22
- South Korea: 16
Electric Vehicle here refers to all forms of non IC Engine, even Hybrid:
- Plug-In Vehicle (PIV)
- Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV)
- Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV)
Source for figures: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, http://www.oica.net
Another source of Data:EV Volumes dot COM, http://www.ev-volumes.com
I am registered with this site. This is the data they provide to members:
- Monthly sales updates for every plug-in vehicle in over 40 markets
- Annual sales history by market & model back to 2008, monthly data since January 2013
- Plug in vehicle population on the road – status vs targets
- Charging infrastructure status in more than 25 important markets
- Plug-in vehicle taxation and incentives monitor in the top-20 PEV markets
- Present EV and PHEV model specifications with 70 vehicles
- Base prices before incentives in 4 leading markets/currencies (USD, CNY, GBP, D-Euro, JPY and NOK)
- Future EV and PHEV roll-out plan with timing of 200 vehicles
- Installed Battery capacity by chemistry, supplier, vehicle sold and geography